2013 Non-Metal Building Materials Industry Investment Strategy Report -: In the spring of February, it is still cold
April 16 14:13:31, 2020
The growth rate of cement supply has declined, and the supply and demand have improved. However, the medium- and long-term trend of “de-capacityization†has not been made. The decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2012 and the release of new capacity have had a negative impact on the industry's prosperity at both the supply and demand sides, resulting in the cement industry's prosperity falling into the short-term bottom; with the arrival of 2013, “new towns†The recovery of related infrastructure investment brought about by the improvement of people's livelihood and the slowdown in the growth rate of new capacity will lead to an improvement in the cement industry's prosperity; in the case of overall overcapacity, “de-capacity†The long-term trend is not issued. For the cement industry with obvious poor construction in the second region, we are the best in the East China region where the market competition is very good. The price elasticity of cement in the region is the best. The leading enterprises in the region such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement and Jiangxi Cement are worth Focus. In addition, due to the decline in the industry's business climate in 2012, the market will give some leading enterprises a lower valuation. Under the situation that earnings are expected to improve, the second lowest level of ton EV is also a safe investment target. .
The flat glass industry is hard to see a significant recovery. As a cyclical industry, the glass industry has also experienced significant cyclical fluctuations. Since 2003, the glass industry has experienced three profit lows, which appeared in 2006/02, 2009/02 and 2012/02 respectively. The rate is -9.17% / -8.17% / -5.20%. Judging from historical experience, if the loss of the glass industry is the starting point of a cycle, the glass industry as a whole will lose two periods from the end of 2011 to 2012. In 2013, the glass industry will enter the early stage of industry recovery. Considering that the supply capacity pressure on the supply side is quite large, we believe that the profitability of the glass industry in 2013 will be near the break-even point, and the prosperity will not increase significantly.
Other building materials have many highlights that deserve attention. Although the market capacity of other building materials is smaller than that of bulk building materials, some sub-sectors have good growth. We prefer “big companies†with obvious competitive advantages in small industries, such as Longquan shares and Qinglong pipe industry in PCCP pipeline industry; Jianyan Group of the water agent industry; Changhai stocks of the glass fiber products industry; Beixin building materials of the gypsum board industry. These companies have a clear growth in their 2013 results. Most of the current valuations are at a second low level, which is a key investment focus.
Maintain industry rating as “Neutralâ€. Under the circumstance that the growth rate of fixed assets investment will not be greatly improved, the demand for building materials will be suppressed and the industry's “neutral†rating will be maintained. However, in terms of investment opportunities, the performance of the cement industry has increased, and the leading companies with lower levels of PB have already had investment value; the “Little Giants†of other building materials industries have clear earnings prospects, low valuations, and worth investing. Focus on.