As a supporting paper packaging industry for all consumer industries in China, it is a barometer of Chinese consumption. However, since May of this year, the oversupply of packaging paper has become more serious, and the price of paper has been falling. Even at the moment of the "golden season", the weakness of demand is beyond everyone's expectations, this winter is particularly cold!

The price decline is too serious, CCTV financial shakes

A recent report by CCTV Finance truly revealed the coldness of the industry, the price of national waste, raw paper and carton fell, but the inventory was seriously over-supplied.

The price of corrugated paper fell from 5,100 yuan / ton in May to the current 3,700 yuan / ton, a drop of nearly 27%, and the price of cardboard paper fell from 5,600 yuan / ton to 4,000 yuan / ton, a drop of 29%.

With the decline in the price of finished paper, the price of waste paper also fell back. The price of first-grade used cardboard paper dropped from 3,200 yuan/ton at the end of May to the current 2,200 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 30%. Tang Yanju, deputy secretary-general of the National Recycling Resources Recycling Association, told reporters that the decline in the price of waste paper, whether it is a waste paper recycling enterprise or a paper mill, was not expected.

Feng Zhongjun's waste paper packing station, the warehouse is almost filled with waste paper already packed. Feng Zhongjun said that it may be that I have been making waste paper for the past five or six years. The loss should be the largest and the largest. In a paper mill in Xiamen, which mainly produces carton paper, a large amount of corrugated paper and cardboard paper are piled up in the warehouse. The person in charge told the reporter that their finished paper stock is currently 30,000 tons, which is 30% higher than the same period last year. about.

Continued decline in demand led to paper price diving

Usually, the demand for cartons on the eve of the Double Eleven E-Commerce Shopping Festival is the strongest. Why does the current price have a big dip?

Follow CCTV's lens to find out.

Yan Qicheng, deputy general manager of Jianlian Liansheng Paper Co., Ltd., said that the decline in paper prices during the peak season was caused by the lack of market demand. Zhang Tongde, president of Tianjin Property Light Xuyang International Trade Co., Ltd. said that we have a factory in Tianjin (previous year) should have more than 80 million, 90 million sales per month in the peak season, now only 60 million Therefore, the production capacity is 30% surplus.

CCTV reporters surveyed and analyzed that the demand for carton has weakened and the export orders have decreased this year, as well as the promotion of packaging and recycling of large cartons. In addition, the increase in paper production capacity and the increase in imported finished paper are also important reasons for oversupply.

Li Wei, managing director of Beijing Bowen Ruisi Business Consulting Co., Ltd., told reporters that in 2017, we probably put out about 19 million tons of capacity for the 19 lines (box paper corrugated paper). In the first three quarters of January to September 2018, China's imports of corrugated paper finished paper increased by 75% compared with last year. The demand is relatively weak, and the increase in supply is one reason why the (paper price) peak season is not prosperous.

The paper packaging industry faces a global crisis, and stable demand will overwhelm

Judging from the situation after the double eleven days, the carton order is not busy enough to make a final conclusion. What is even more frightening is that the long off-season is coming. For the current crisis, the entire paper packaging industry chain must abandon the past bad habits of neighbors, routine hype, holding a glory, a loss of the psychological, and jointly maintain the stability of the industrial chain, do not come up with some soaring skyrocketing .

First of all, paper mills actively reduce production capacity, which is an effective way to balance supply and demand, but whether the major paper mills can reach a tacit agreement is yet to be verified. Secondly, from the chairman of the paper giant to the ordinary employees, the government should be called upon to seriously face the grim situation of the consumption breaks, stop the assault on the infrastructure as soon as possible, pay attention to people's livelihood, reduce the burden on enterprises and residents, and stabilize consumption. .

Many people understand that it is not an easy task to stabilize the paper price when there is no stable demand or when the demand shrinks significantly. But it is precisely this stable demand that faces many challenges. First, the Sino-US sweater war did not see signs of substantial reversal, and foreign trade orders are still in a state of loss. Second, the story of real estate and six wallets is fermenting, tightening the belt for a suite of household consumption is getting weaker. Third, the burden of enterprises and the burden of residents have not been substantially reduced, and the disease has been outbreaking, and the expenditure on consumption by residents has continued to decrease. Fourth, the waste of infrastructure construction in various places has changed the trend of profit, and a large amount of liquidity has turned into reinforced concrete, which has made domestic demand worse. 5. A large number of entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs are heavily in debt, and their income has dropped sharply.

Looking back on the development of the paper packaging industry during the 40 years of reform and opening up, the demand for packaging paper has increased from almost negligible to more than 60 million tons. Papermaking and packaging and printing enterprises have blossomed everywhere, all thanks to the economic prosperity that benefits the people's livelihood and thus stimulates consumption. However, the current property market, stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market crisis are pressing harder. If the response is not correct, the consumption will continue to shrink. I am afraid that even giants such as Xiaolong, Shanying, Hexing and Yutong will not survive.

Therefore, whether the paper packaging industry can return to the healthy track, the key depends on whether the demand can be stabilized. Otherwise, everything is an idiotic dream.

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